Publications

REDESIGN, REUSE, REDUCE

  • Growing population & scarcer natural resources – Tomorrow’s world biggest challenge!
  • Transition from linear to circular now underway – The end of the world as you know it
  • Not just good for the ecosystem, but also for the economy & early business adopters

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“AND AT THE END, THE GERMANS ALWAYS WIN”

  • This month, 32 nations will be contending for the ultimate football championship trophy in Russia
  • Against all sportive odds, our proprietary macro scorings suggest Switzerland could reach the final
  • However, as often, Germany offers the best combination of factors and thus should snatch the title

 

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GAME OF THREATS

  • Unpredictable & stubborn political leaders put (again) the spotlight on geopolitical risk
  • More rhetoric than action – History shows that such events have limited impact on markets
  • Market noise & revived volatility usually offer buying opportunities for long term investors

 

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MATCH ME IF YOU CAN!

  • The average age of Japanese SMEs owners has increased to 66 from 47 in 1995
  • Finding a family successor for ageing business owners has become increasingly difficult
  • Huge market opportunities have emerged for “matchmaking” M&A consulting companies

 

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ARE YOU GAME FOR E-SPORTS?

  • E-sports have transformed video games into new major spectator sports
  • Worldwide online events now attract more viewers than large traditional sporting events
  • A huge market opportunity – Raging battle between Traditional & Digital Brands for content

 

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BANKING ON PRIVATE DEBT, NOT BANKS

  • Substantial post-2008 money creation around the globe did not trickle down to SMEs
  • Basel III rules have reduced banks’ ability to lend, leaving the door open to private lenders
  • Attractive, stable, uncorrelated returns – Strong investor appetite for such alternative strategies

 

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IS WHITE THE NEW GOLD?

  • The global ski industry may well be suffering from warmer winters & discounted season offerings…
  • But leading resorts’ earnings are still on the rise as pass revenue & guest spending matter more
  • China’s 2022 Winter Olympics side-effects now offer substantial growth opportunities

 

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TOY STOR-e 4.0

  • Christmas is soon upon us! Children may be cheering but toy industry actors are frowning…
  • Digitalization & Online have taken power – Both toy makers and retailers need to adapt fast
  • Classics are not dead but product innovation is key – Industry rationalization is far from over

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BLACK MONDAY(S)… SO WHAT?

  • Only 30 years ago, Black Monday marked the US stock market’s largest ever single-day loss
  • More hiccups will occur but history tells us that equities offer most attractive long-term returns
  • Buy today & go away? – A well-proven recipe for successful equity investing across the cycle

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Investment Insights – BRICKS Vs. CLICKS

  • Hundreds of US malls have closed and many retail brands forced to bankruptcy in recent years
  • On-line retailers are reaping the rewards of their pioneering spirit – But the game is far from over
  • Traditional retailers must reinvent themselves – Emerging hybrid models as the new winners

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Investment Insights – CAN CRYPTO BITE THE COIN?

  • Cryptocurrencies are back in vogue but do not offer suitable investments, in our view
  • Decentralized, volatile, and often unsafe, they lack many attributes of a real currency
  • Conversely, their underlying Blockchain technology appears much more promising

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Investment Insights – SEA, PIGS, AND SUN

  • In “flight to safety” mode, both tourists and investors tap Europe’s periphery again
  • Better macro fundamentals have created a virtuous circle for those who dared to reform
  • The return of the PIGS still offers attractive cross-asset risk-adjusted returns – Who’s next?

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Investment Insights – DRIVING (IN) THE FUTURE

  • Global mobility is on the rise but Millennials are not interested in owning their own car
  • The shift from a vehicle-centric to a shared platform-centric model is now well underway
  • This disruptive trend creates new attractive cross-sector investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – WANNASMILE FOR WANNACRY?

  • WannaCry – The global annual cost of cyber-attacks is estimated to reach USD 2.1 tn by 2019
  • In the face of this growing risk, cybersecurity spending should top USD 113 bn by 2020
  • The silver lining is that this significant threat is creating attractive investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – WHEN LEGENDS STRIKE BACK

  • Just like Federer and Nadal, some former star companies are still on top of their game
  • Pressure from disruptive newcomers has forced old legends to reinvent themselves
  • They changed coaches, worked on weaknesses, went on diets and eventually struck back

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Investment Insights – SHINES OF LIFE IN GLOBAL LUXURY?

  • The proclaimed death of traditional luxury players may have been a bit premature
  • China alone provides over 100 thousand new millionaires yearly, all potential customers
  • Industry leaders are now back in the spotlight as they adapt to the “new normal”

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Investment Insights – VIRTUAL REALITY ON STOCK MARKETS?

• Bull market is now 8 years old and US stocks are still gaining at a fast pace
• Skeptics say investors are living in a virtual world that will one day hit back
• Future prospects for stocks could be dismal, but virtual reality is here to stay

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Investment Insights – EUROPEAN CORPORATE RENAISSANCE

•For many years, the media has focused on the failures of Political Europe
•Meanwhile, the restructuring of Corporate Europe has gone widely unnoticed
•Good news from European firms should make the headlines again soon

 

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