Publications

MEAT THE NEW BURGER

  • Excessive animal meat-eating is depleting Earth’s natural resources, beyond being unhealthy
  • A more balanced diet, local produce and alternative protein sources are the path forward
  • Check out for companies that stand to benefit from this meaty transition

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HURRICANE SEASON CRUISING

  • Navigating global financial markets requires more than a compass, a map, and a sextant
  • The transition away from a Goldilocks macro scenario is now stirring up troubled waters
  • Staying the course in this new volatility regime warrants more active portfolio management

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NEXT YEAR YOUNGER

  • Human life span has doubled over the last 200 years but expectancy at 70 has barely increased
  • Cure ageing, not (only) diseases! – Paradigm shift in the health industry now well underway
  • Big data as the game-changer – No end in sight for Tech giants longevity…

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THE SHOW MUST GO ON

  • From vinyl records to digital files, a wind of change has blown over the global music industry
  • Streaming & concerts have overtaken physical sales – Revenues back to their 2006 peak in the US
  • Digitalization has created new opportunities but not all players will top the Billboard charts

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JUST 👍 IT!

  • Worth USD 1.3 trillion, the global sport & fitness industry has become a major growth sector today
  • Baby-boomers anxious to remain healthy & body image obsessed Millennials are the main drivers
  • Digital natives have now taken sports to social media – A new societal phenomenon is born!

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REDESIGN, REUSE, REDUCE

  • Growing population & scarcer natural resources – Tomorrow’s world biggest challenge!
  • Transition from linear to circular now underway – The end of the world as you know it
  • Not just good for the ecosystem, but also for the economy & early business adopters

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INVESTMENT FOCUS – The Difficult Journey of The Long-term Investor

Warren Buffett once famously said, “The stock market is a device to transfer money from the impatient to the patient”. Long-term investment though, is not for the fainthearted and far from easy. Yet it can be a very rewarding strategy. Undoubtedly, it was for him at least as in more than 50 years – from 1964 to 2017 – he achieved a compounded annual return of +20.9%, well above the market at +9.9%. As a matter of fact, $1’000 USD invested with him in 1964 would have become $24M by 2017.

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“AND AT THE END, THE GERMANS ALWAYS WIN”

  • This month, 32 nations will be contending for the ultimate football championship trophy in Russia
  • Against all sportive odds, our proprietary macro scorings suggest Switzerland could reach the final
  • However, as often, Germany offers the best combination of factors and thus should snatch the title

 

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GAME OF THREATS

  • Unpredictable & stubborn political leaders put (again) the spotlight on geopolitical risk
  • More rhetoric than action – History shows that such events have limited impact on markets
  • Market noise & revived volatility usually offer buying opportunities for long term investors

 

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MATCH ME IF YOU CAN!

  • The average age of Japanese SMEs owners has increased to 66 from 47 in 1995
  • Finding a family successor for ageing business owners has become increasingly difficult
  • Huge market opportunities have emerged for “matchmaking” M&A consulting companies

 

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ARE YOU GAME FOR E-SPORTS?

  • E-sports have transformed video games into new major spectator sports
  • Worldwide online events now attract more viewers than large traditional sporting events
  • A huge market opportunity – Raging battle between Traditional & Digital Brands for content

 

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BANKING ON PRIVATE DEBT, NOT BANKS

  • Substantial post-2008 money creation around the globe did not trickle down to SMEs
  • Basel III rules have reduced banks’ ability to lend, leaving the door open to private lenders
  • Attractive, stable, uncorrelated returns – Strong investor appetite for such alternative strategies

 

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IS WHITE THE NEW GOLD?

  • The global ski industry may well be suffering from warmer winters & discounted season offerings…
  • But leading resorts’ earnings are still on the rise as pass revenue & guest spending matter more
  • China’s 2022 Winter Olympics side-effects now offer substantial growth opportunities

 

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TOY STOR-e 4.0

  • Christmas is soon upon us! Children may be cheering but toy industry actors are frowning…
  • Digitalization & Online have taken power – Both toy makers and retailers need to adapt fast
  • Classics are not dead but product innovation is key – Industry rationalization is far from over

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BLACK MONDAY(S)… SO WHAT?

  • Only 30 years ago, Black Monday marked the US stock market’s largest ever single-day loss
  • More hiccups will occur but history tells us that equities offer most attractive long-term returns
  • Buy today & go away? – A well-proven recipe for successful equity investing across the cycle

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Investment Insights – BRICKS Vs. CLICKS

  • Hundreds of US malls have closed and many retail brands forced to bankruptcy in recent years
  • On-line retailers are reaping the rewards of their pioneering spirit – But the game is far from over
  • Traditional retailers must reinvent themselves – Emerging hybrid models as the new winners

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Investment Insights – CAN CRYPTO BITE THE COIN?

  • Cryptocurrencies are back in vogue but do not offer suitable investments, in our view
  • Decentralized, volatile, and often unsafe, they lack many attributes of a real currency
  • Conversely, their underlying Blockchain technology appears much more promising

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Investment Insights – SEA, PIGS, AND SUN

  • In “flight to safety” mode, both tourists and investors tap Europe’s periphery again
  • Better macro fundamentals have created a virtuous circle for those who dared to reform
  • The return of the PIGS still offers attractive cross-asset risk-adjusted returns – Who’s next?

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Investment Insights – DRIVING (IN) THE FUTURE

  • Global mobility is on the rise but Millennials are not interested in owning their own car
  • The shift from a vehicle-centric to a shared platform-centric model is now well underway
  • This disruptive trend creates new attractive cross-sector investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – WANNASMILE FOR WANNACRY?

  • WannaCry – The global annual cost of cyber-attacks is estimated to reach USD 2.1 tn by 2019
  • In the face of this growing risk, cybersecurity spending should top USD 113 bn by 2020
  • The silver lining is that this significant threat is creating attractive investment opportunities

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