Investment Insights

BLACK MONDAY(S)… SO WHAT?

  • Only 30 years ago, Black Monday marked the US stock market’s largest ever single-day loss
  • More hiccups will occur but history tells us that equities offer most attractive long-term returns
  • Buy today & go away? – A well-proven recipe for successful equity investing across the cycle

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Investment Insights – BRICKS Vs. CLICKS

  • Hundreds of US malls have closed and many retail brands forced to bankruptcy in recent years
  • On-line retailers are reaping the rewards of their pioneering spirit – But the game is far from over
  • Traditional retailers must reinvent themselves – Emerging hybrid models as the new winners

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Investment Insights – CAN CRYPTO BITE THE COIN?

  • Cryptocurrencies are back in vogue but do not offer suitable investments, in our view
  • Decentralized, volatile, and often unsafe, they lack many attributes of a real currency
  • Conversely, their underlying Blockchain technology appears much more promising

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Investment Insights – SEA, PIGS, AND SUN

  • In “flight to safety” mode, both tourists and investors tap Europe’s periphery again
  • Better macro fundamentals have created a virtuous circle for those who dared to reform
  • The return of the PIGS still offers attractive cross-asset risk-adjusted returns – Who’s next?

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Investment Insights – DRIVING (IN) THE FUTURE

  • Global mobility is on the rise but Millennials are not interested in owning their own car
  • The shift from a vehicle-centric to a shared platform-centric model is now well underway
  • This disruptive trend creates new attractive cross-sector investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – WANNASMILE FOR WANNACRY?

  • WannaCry – The global annual cost of cyber-attacks is estimated to reach USD 2.1 tn by 2019
  • In the face of this growing risk, cybersecurity spending should top USD 113 bn by 2020
  • The silver lining is that this significant threat is creating attractive investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – WHEN LEGENDS STRIKE BACK

  • Just like Federer and Nadal, some former star companies are still on top of their game
  • Pressure from disruptive newcomers has forced old legends to reinvent themselves
  • They changed coaches, worked on weaknesses, went on diets and eventually struck back

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Investment Insights – SHINES OF LIFE IN GLOBAL LUXURY?

  • The proclaimed death of traditional luxury players may have been a bit premature
  • China alone provides over 100 thousand new millionaires yearly, all potential customers
  • Industry leaders are now back in the spotlight as they adapt to the “new normal”

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Investment Insights – VIRTUAL REALITY ON STOCK MARKETS?

• Bull market is now 8 years old and US stocks are still gaining at a fast pace
• Skeptics say investors are living in a virtual world that will one day hit back
• Future prospects for stocks could be dismal, but virtual reality is here to stay

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Investment Insights – EUROPEAN CORPORATE RENAISSANCE

•For many years, the media has focused on the failures of Political Europe
•Meanwhile, the restructuring of Corporate Europe has gone widely unnoticed
•Good news from European firms should make the headlines again soon

 

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Investment Insights – Reflation !

  • 2016 was a turning point for the US, both politically and economically
  • For the first time in over a decade the US economy is operating at full potential
  • Previous deflationary financial trends set to reverse as of 2017

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Investment Insights – The Ronald vs. The Donald

  • There are many similarities between Trump and Reagan, but also some differences
  • Ronald Reagan owed his success to a talented team and favorable factors
  • Trump’s early cabinet choices and economic context are less encouraging

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Investment Insights – Fading superpowers

  • Our “Fed is dead” claim from a year ago now applies to all central banks
  • Negative rates have brought long yields to zero and limit central banks’ actions
  • Active fiscal policies are expected in 2017 but will not boost growth soon

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Investment Insights : New challenges for governments

  • The case against Apple shows how mega-corporations are avoiding EU taxation
  • States will be increasingly challenged by the power of large global firms
  • Mega-firms may also face a fiscal backlash if this turns into a political issue

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Investment Insights – Turning silver into gold

  • The large cohort now reaching retirement is known as the Silver Generation
  • These recent retirees are in good shape both physically and financially
  • This growing consumer segment offers attractive investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – The hunt for… Yield

  • Interest rates hit new historical lows after three decades of decline
  • Excess savings searching for safety is behind this unprecedented trend
  • The search for yield from safe assets will affect all asset classes

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Investment Insights – The Blond factor

  • UK elections show populists have a supportive electorate in large countries
  • Polls and experts have consistently underestimated unorthodox candidates
  • Currency diversification is key to mitigating these political risks

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Investment Insights – EURO2016: no Brexit in sight…

  • The European Football Championship will soon monopolize attention
  • Soccer and investing both rely on smart forecasting and team-building
  • Based on our quantitative analysis, the future Euro2016 winner is… England!

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Investment Insight – Banks vs. Fintech

  • It has been a tough decade for banks, especially in Europe
  • Small, agile start-ups are challenging a mature industry
  • We believe selective FinTech stocks should emerge as relative winners

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Investment Insight – The pitfalls of crowd investing

  • Early turmoil in markets turned 2016 consensus forecasts upside down
  • Consensus positions have asymmetrical risk/return profiles
  • High-conviction bets should be sized according to consensus positioning

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