Investment Insights

Investment Insights – EUROPEAN CORPORATE RENAISSANCE

•For many years, the media has focused on the failures of Political Europe
•Meanwhile, the restructuring of Corporate Europe has gone widely unnoticed
•Good news from European firms should make the headlines again soon

 

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Investment Insights – Reflation !

  • 2016 was a turning point for the US, both politically and economically
  • For the first time in over a decade the US economy is operating at full potential
  • Previous deflationary financial trends set to reverse as of 2017

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Investment Insights – The Ronald vs. The Donald

  • There are many similarities between Trump and Reagan, but also some differences
  • Ronald Reagan owed his success to a talented team and favorable factors
  • Trump’s early cabinet choices and economic context are less encouraging

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Investment Insights – Fading superpowers

  • Our “Fed is dead” claim from a year ago now applies to all central banks
  • Negative rates have brought long yields to zero and limit central banks’ actions
  • Active fiscal policies are expected in 2017 but will not boost growth soon

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Investment Insights : New challenges for governments

  • The case against Apple shows how mega-corporations are avoiding EU taxation
  • States will be increasingly challenged by the power of large global firms
  • Mega-firms may also face a fiscal backlash if this turns into a political issue

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Investment Insights – Turning silver into gold

  • The large cohort now reaching retirement is known as the Silver Generation
  • These recent retirees are in good shape both physically and financially
  • This growing consumer segment offers attractive investment opportunities

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Investment Insights – The hunt for… Yield

  • Interest rates hit new historical lows after three decades of decline
  • Excess savings searching for safety is behind this unprecedented trend
  • The search for yield from safe assets will affect all asset classes

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Investment Insights – The Blond factor

  • UK elections show populists have a supportive electorate in large countries
  • Polls and experts have consistently underestimated unorthodox candidates
  • Currency diversification is key to mitigating these political risks

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Investment Insights – EURO2016: no Brexit in sight…

  • The European Football Championship will soon monopolize attention
  • Soccer and investing both rely on smart forecasting and team-building
  • Based on our quantitative analysis, the future Euro2016 winner is… England!

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Investment Insight – Banks vs. Fintech

  • It has been a tough decade for banks, especially in Europe
  • Small, agile start-ups are challenging a mature industry
  • We believe selective FinTech stocks should emerge as relative winners

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Investment Insight – The pitfalls of crowd investing

  • Early turmoil in markets turned 2016 consensus forecasts upside down
  • Consensus positions have asymmetrical risk/return profiles
  • High-conviction bets should be sized according to consensus positioning

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